Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.094553 0.106572 0.119554 0.134624 0.151642 0.170273 0.192229
2025-12-14 0.070594 0.085326 0.102394 0.123650 0.149441 0.179760 0.218169
2025-12-21 0.054441 0.070125 0.089499 0.115228 0.148573 0.190427 0.247113
2025-12-28 0.044779 0.061236 0.082824 0.113290 0.155316 0.211449 0.292469
2026-01-04 0.036370 0.052615 0.075168 0.108878 0.158206 0.228101 0.335291
2026-01-11 0.030454 0.046469 0.069929 0.106963 0.164297 0.250250 0.389958
2026-01-18 0.026124 0.041928 0.066292 0.106805 0.172988 0.277705 0.457678
2026-01-25 0.021464 0.036115 0.059805 0.101166 0.172236 0.290548 0.504890
2026-02-01 0.017612 0.030982 0.053596 0.094944 0.169473 0.299678 0.547704
2026-02-08 0.014895 0.027337 0.049305 0.091283 0.170500 0.315453 0.605236
2026-02-15 0.012627 0.024123 0.045265 0.087394 0.170442 0.329267 0.661789
2026-02-22 0.011279 0.022403 0.043682 0.087847 0.178686 0.360051 0.757294
2026-03-01 0.009600 0.019815 0.040134 0.084042 0.178245 0.374559 0.824341
2026-03-08 0.008363 0.017919 0.037661 0.082037 0.181247 0.396838 0.913072
2026-03-15 0.007323 0.016264 0.035426 0.080164 0.184254 0.419818 1.008588
2026-03-22 0.006705 0.015427 0.034802 0.081761 0.195392 0.463059 1.161043
2026-03-29 0.005986 0.014242 0.033217 0.080874 0.200593 0.493597 1.289303
2026-04-05 0.005442 0.013375 0.032228 0.081251 0.208993 0.533567 1.450832
2026-04-12 0.005015 0.012725 0.031648 0.082554 0.220035 0.582398 1.647271
2026-04-19 0.004399 0.011495 0.029446 0.079288 0.218478 0.598155 1.755563
2026-04-26 0.003825 0.010284 0.027099 0.075229 0.214021 0.605317 1.841018
2026-05-03 0.003405 0.009410 0.025498 0.072943 0.214161 0.625486 1.970617
2026-05-10 0.003021 0.008577 0.023872 0.070301 0.212791 0.641118 2.090107